Analysis
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Fundamental Analysis
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DEAR KOTAK,
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Mcleod Russel is a classic turnaround candidate returning into the black in the first quarter of this year. On net sales of Rs 316.89 crore, the firm posted a loss of Rs. 19.74 crore in 31 March 2005. However, the company bounced back into the black in Q1 with a net profit of Rs. 9.69 crore against a loss of Rs. 7.7 crore. Part of B.M.Khaitan group, the company is engaged in manufacturing of bulk tea. The company was originally part of Eveready Industries Ltd. The company demerged its dry cells business & tea business in two separate companies. The demerged tea business company was recently listed as McLeod Russel India Limited. The de-merger of bulk tea business from Eveready Industries was the first step towards consolidation of the group tea business. It recently completed its acquisition of Williamson Tea Assam Ltd from London-based Magors, thus becoming the largest integrated tea company in the world. Being in the last leg of a turnaround and impending consolidation in the tea businesses are the two triggers in the stock. | ||||||||||||||
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The positive outlook of the metals sector over the long-term and the recent price hikes has brought the focus back on metal stocks. A low-priced stock, Sunflag Iron, has returned on the investment radar. Promoted by Kenya based Bhardwaj brothers in 1984, the firm manufactures special steel long products mini-mill, mild and alloy steel rolled products. A consistent profit earner, the company is de-risked from the natural vagaries of the metal cycles as it services core sector industries like Automobiles, Railways, Defense, Agriculture, Engineering Industry etc. Apart from the regular business upturn the company’s foray into stainless steel is likely to add to the topline and bottomline. A strong fundamental outlook and favourable technical formation on the charts are the key triggers. | ||||||||||||||
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Hello,
Thanks for the letter and
Let me answer them one by one:
First let us go through some of the news flow, in the counter:
1. Radhe Developers (
There is a great achievement by Company by bagging order work of Rs 500 million from Nepal's Semi Government Corporation in which they Propose to built a shopping mall and multiplex in heart city of Kathmandu in Nepal. This will benefit Company in a huge manner in current fiscal.
The Company is in final stage of the deal to make it own state of art resort & spa of international standard & five star category with the leading group of
seems company's growth will be very good in future and it will gain investor's confidence in near future.
Further the Company has informed that it is also in the process of developing a golf course on the outskirt of Vadodara city. This will be an added advantage to cosmopolitan population of Vadodara city. Company also proposes to set up more golf courses in metro cities of
2. Radhe Developers (
Further the Board has decided to convene an Extraordinary General Meeting of the members of the Company on June 18, 2005 to consider subdivision of the face value of equity shares from Rs 10/-each to Rs 1/- each and consequential amendment in the Memorandum & Articles of Association of the Company.
3.Radhe Developers (India) Ltd has informed that an Extra Ordinary General Meeting of the members of the Company will be held on March 14, 2005, inter alia, to consider the following:
a). Increase in Authorised Share Capital of the Company from Rs 26,00,00,000 to Rs 56,00,00,000 by creation of 3,00,00,000 new equity shares of Rs 10/- each and consequential alteration in Memorandum & Articles of Association of the Company.
b). Raising of additional long term resources.
4. Radhe Developers (
Further the Company has informed that it has planned to foray into 'Infrastructure Development Sector' and is in the process of launching a township called 'Ajwa Acres' near the city of Vadodara approx. 15 kms from the National Highway No. 8 on the bank of Ajwa Lake and just adjacent to the 'Ajwa-Nimeta gardens - a place that attracts numerous visitors. 'Ajwa Acres is proposed to be promoted as a business/technology park housed with all modern amenities shall be an ideal vehicle for providing integrated infrastructure facilities. The company is considering signing up an MOU with the GIDC, Government of Gujarat for the said project. The project is estimated to cost Rs 4550 million that will be completed in 5 years of time that shall have an estimated gross sales realization of Rs 6570 million. The negotiation for acquisition of the land for the initial phase is in the final stages. The project will be undertaken in two phases, the first phase shall commence in March 2005.
The promoters of the Company has already contributed Rs 50 million in the commercial project at Paldi and plan to contribute further Rs 160 million for acquisition of land for Ajwa Acres. The said fund of Rs 210 million by the promoters is proposed to be available to the Company by way of capital and thus at no extra revenue cost.
Taking advantage of the promoters, and Radhe group's past experience of 6430058 sq ft. of property development valuing Rs 820.40 million and the services provided to the esteemed Sahara Group for its large-scale townships, the Company is entering the Infrastructure Development Community with its 'Ajwa Acres' township. The township project also comes in the time when the lean period of the real estate market is a matter of past and the Indian economy vis-a-vis the real estate market back on the fast track. The Company, after the lean period, will be back in the main stream with these projects.
5. Radhe Developers (India) Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on May 10, 2005, inter alia, to consider the following:-
a). The proposal of Nepal Government's Corporation to acquire 10.18% stake in the Company at $1.59 per share.
b). Splitting of face value of Equity Shares of the Company from Rs 10/- to Rs 1/- each.
3. Rights issue of Equity Shares of the Company and terms & conditions thereof.
4. Fix the date of Extra Ordinary General Meeting of the Company.
Besides this the company is coming up with an IPO and also the company has just started a project of 160 flats in Ahmedabad.
Besides this the company has already started work for 160-flat project in Ahmedabad, which is expected to be completed within 3 months.
Now the question comes whether one should remain invested in the company or exit. Let me analyse these ………
See, to get out of the company now is to put forward your views that the company is coming up with an IPO at a price less than Rs.20, which is absurd in this case. According to my sources the price of the IPO will not be less than Rs.25. In such a bull market, the price of the said IPO, could be very high; as the companies try to cash in on the bull by extracing maximum valuations for any company from investors.
Secondly, someone is spreading the news that it belongs to the brother of Harshad Mehta and hence it is manipulated.
Hello……..from where does this logic come ? If this be so, why does people still recommend HFCL, Pentamedia Graphics, Silverline technologies, etc. which are from the K-10, basket of erstwhile bull turned prisoner, Ketan Parikh ? Will be right to say that since and company belongs to a brother of the great Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, and hence it will rise no matter what shit the balance sheet looks like? This kind of analysis is absolutely ridiculous. Do people not enter manpulated stocks by watching charts ? Have u seen the price of Sharp India Ltd. The company is in huge red and there is no plan of the compnay to get out of this mess, but the operators are very active in the counter so also a section of persons who buy share only seeing technicals. These days Japanese companies are fiding difficult to fight the brands from South Korea ( L G , Samsung, Huyandai Santro etc.).
Also this logic of getting out below Rs.20, endores the view that the company will never allow Nepal Government's Corporation to acquire 10.18% stake in the Company at $1.59(Rs.69 approx) per share.
How does such persons know that it will not be able to strike the deal at this rate?
I have told that I have good position in the company and I will not exit early as the IPO is coming in less than 50 days.
Some of these rumours have their roots in one of the moderators of a Yahoo group. And, I have no hesitation to say this. He thinks he is a great guy at 24 (years). There is another one who alsobehaves in a similar fashion,has a web-site, belongs to another group and is famous for holding conferences, with strict rules. Once the former said to me that, the company belongs to Daud Ibrahim and the don has come to
It is like saying that so and so prisoner has sold the Jail while inside, to pay for his lawyers bill…lol….,...
Such is the nature of analysis here and people are made to believe their cock and bull story in a systematic and planned way by organizing a conference and throwing these cocktails in the midst of all. The members who are present at that time add further colour to it and then pass packaged items to the group members, who pull the panic lever ( many of whom are new investors ) as soon as they see such reports. What they do not understand is that, such bear cartels are only wanting to pull the shares down to enter the counter and leave them in lurch. See the same thing happened in Morgan Ventures, BSEL, Kedia Infotech ( it was told to me, by one of the moderators of another group that I have fallen into the trap of Aniruddh Sethi and I would soon lose money). I had sold some, hearing his advice but kept some, which doubled in less than a month.
Moreover, I have said this in a number of earlier occasions also and specially during the February rally. These are just the persons who either do not want other picks to run high so that they cannot catch them at later stages, when they have sold some holdings or they are jealous of others making money and the analysts prescribing them; so that that people flock their services( most of which are paid).
My contention is to hold Radhe Developers Ltd. for some more time, so that the stock at least reaches it first target of Rs.24.There was a healthy correction yesterday and fresh money will come in today. This is necessary after such fiery run of 3 long days. What will u do if u run continuously for 3 hours ? Will u not stop a while and drink water? Same is case with the stock market. It needs a breather to move ahead in a healthy way. Also please note that if the
Besides the company is doing well inspite of the disappointing results in the last quarter due to Gujarat Floods and also due to monsoons. Construction companies normally face problems of rain during the monsoons. It is expected to post somewhat good results in this quarter.
So guys hold on to this pick for some more time. I am still invested in the counter and I have no fear of Late Harshad Mehta’s apparition; this company is my baby like BSEL or Sunflag Iron and I have nothing to worry.
Yesterday I recommended Indus Networks Ltd. ( BSE Code--->532381) and Soma Textiles and Industries Ltd ( BSE Code--->521034) …….Indus might hit the upper circuits today, so do the morning trade.
Purchasing Indus Networks tomorrow, should be like, like singing the Raga "Brindabani Sarang" or "Bhim Palasree" directly after waking up from sleep. Or playing "Chakradars" and "Relas", in the Tabla after a very very brief "Uthan" or play "Jhalas" in the Sitar after super short "aalap" and "Jhod".
Got my point ?
See u in green todayin all the counters u trade……..
Regards,
Suman Mukherjee